Is it too late to buy Tesla?

Will Big Tech thrive under Trump’s policies?

How will tariffs impact the global supply chain?

Hold up Reader. Breathe.

I get it. You are constantly bombarded with headlines and “expert analysis” on CNBC about Trump’s potential impact on the market, and it is overwhelming.

But here’s the truth: these forecasts rarely come true. You might as well flip a coin.

Remember when everyone said aggressive rate hikes from the Fed would tip us into a recession? Instead, the U.S. economy stayed resilient, and the stock market is up over 30% since the first rate hike in March 2022.

Similarly, when Trump first took office in 2017, experts expected economic chaos from his trade policies and tax cuts. Yet, we saw strong growth, low unemployment, and a rising stock market for much of his term.

Or think back to Obama’s presidency. Critics were certain his stimulus measures wouldn’t revive the economy after the 2008 crisis. Instead, unemployment fell, and we saw a record-long bull market.

Things aren’t always as straightforward as they seem. The economy (and politics) are complex machines with countless moving parts.

As Charlie Munger famously observed, “too little attention [is given] in economics to second order and even higher order effects.”

In other words, every action has a ripple effect, and those ripples make things much more complicated than we might think.

The problem is that uncertainty is painful, and most investors can’t wait to gobble up tablets of forecasts and predictions to relieve their pain, even though they have proven time and time again to be unreliable.

Howard Marks puts it perfectly: “There simply is no place for certainty in fields that are influenced by psychological fluctuations, irrationality, and randomness. Politics and economics are two such fields, and investing is another. No one can predict reliably what the future holds in these fields, but many people overrate their ability and attempt to do so nevertheless.”

So, beware of investment advice that heavily relies on political forecasts or market predictions. Linear thinking rarely works when the world is anything but linear. Instead, focus on simple, timeless principles.

Just as diet, sleep, and exercise are fundamental to good health, successful investing relies on timeless principles: buying quality businesses at fair prices and letting compounding work its magic.

I aim to do the same at Steady Compounding Insider Stocks (SCIS). I dig deep to uncover quality businesses, assess their risks and valuations, and share differentiated insights that help members uncover potential winning investments.

Tomorrow, I’m launching an exclusive 11.11 sale for SCIS that you won’t want to miss. Keep an eye out!

In the meantime, if you’re curious how my insights uncovered a major opportunity in Netflix when everyone else was jumping ship, check out my past research.

You’ll see how the stock has climbed over 400% since its 2022 low.

​Netflix deep-dive (13 Apr, 2022)​

​Netflix down 26% after hours?! (20 Apr, 2022)​

​Disney overtook Netflix in the streaming wars? (12 Aug, 2022)​

​The King of Streaming (23 May, 2023)​

Compound steadily,

Thomas

P.S. If you’d prefer to skip the exclusive 11.11 promo for email subscribers, you can opt out of the upcoming offer by clicking here.

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