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Steady Compounding

Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar, Benedict Evans Presentation on AI, Oaktree's Howard Marks on Current Markets — 3-Bullet Sunday

Published about 1 year ago • 3 min read

Hey Reader - Thomas here.

Good day to my fellow compounders!

In 3-Bullet Sunday, I share with you the three most interesting piece of article, video or podcast I came across for the week on investing and growth philosophies.

Enjoy!

The Battle for Warner Bros.

Last week we were still digesting Netflix's $82.7 billion offer for Warner Bros.' studios and streaming assets, a deal that would spin off Discovery Global (CNN, HGTV, Discovery Channel) as a separate entity. This week, Paramount launched a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share for the entire WBD, valuing the company at $108.4 billion.

My hope is that Netflix management exercises prudence over the price paid. If it's expensive for Netflix, it's far more expensive for Paramount. Netflix has over 300 million global subscribers. Warner Bros. IP lands on that distribution network and gets monetized at a scale nobody else can match. If the same assets land on Paramount, they're realizing a fraction of that value.

Regardless of how this plays out, if Paramount succeeds in outbidding Netflix, there's a $2.8 billion termination fee coming Netflix's way.

On another note, I published a deep dive on MercadoLibre earlier this week, Part 1 of a 3-part series. If you've been wanting to learn more about Latin America's e-commerce and fintech giant, you can read it here: https://steadycompounding.com/investing/mercadolibre-part-1-survival/​

This week's three bullets cover Howard Marks on the AI bubble debate, what investors get wrong about adjusted earnings, and Gavin Baker's wide-ranging conversation on the AI arms race.

Compound Steadily,
Thomas

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I. Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar

The article "Advice for the Kids" from HumbleDollar offers timeless financial lessons for younger generations.

It emphasizes saving early, living within your means, and investing consistently. The author also highlights the value of avoiding debt, cultivating good spending habits, and understanding that financial success is a marathon, not a sprint.

These principles serve as a guide for building long-term wealth and stability.

​>> Click here to read Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar​

II. Benedict Evans Presentation on AI

Every year, Benedict will produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.

For 2025, ‘AI eats the world’.

​>> Click here to read Benedict Evans Presentation on AI​

III. Oaktree's Howard Marks on China Opportunities, Trump's Cabinet, Market Sentiment

video preview​

Howard Marks interview with Bloomberg:

  • Be less aggressive, but don’t exit the market. Nobody can time the market. Instead, calibrate your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness.
  • You can be right about the events but wrong about how the markets react.
  • There are many speculations about the new administration, but the truth is, nobody knows how it will play out.
  • He doesn’t think things are crazy high now and doesn’t believe it is time to get out of the market.
  • China is trying to calibrate the right amount of stimulus. They’re wary of overshooting.
  • Howard Marks sees the Chinese market as a bargain right now.
  • The problem with the property surplus will take time to be absorbed. It doesn’t just disappear with new policies. He believes the government will do what it takes to digest these excess properties and implement policies to prevent this from happening again.
  • When people say China is uninvestable, it becomes music to their ears.

That's all I have for you today!

Till next week.

Thomas

Founder of Steady Compounding

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Steady Compounding

by Thomas Chua

I write about investment concepts, business breakdowns and timeless lessons from super investors. Featured on Business Times, Channel News Asia (CNA) and more. Read by over 10,000 investors.

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