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Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar, Benedict Evans Presentation on AI, Oaktree's Howard Marks on Current Markets — 3-Bullet Sunday

Published about 1 year ago • 3 min read

Hey Reader - Thomas here.

Good day to my fellow compounders!

In 3-Bullet Sunday, I share with you the three most interesting piece of article, video or podcast I came across for the week on investing and growth philosophies.

Enjoy!

AI Didn't Kill Google. It Won't Kill SaaS Either.

Last year around this time, the dominant narrative was that AI was coming for the Big G. ChatGPT was going to kill Google Search. Obviously, that didn't hold up. In fact, it's looking more like the reverse. Google has a cost advantage most people still underappreciate, a business model that funds its own AI ambitions without depending on capital markets, and it doesn't need to tie other companies' fates to its own to survive. Compare that to OpenAI, which has structured deals so that if it sinks, it takes a chunk of Silicon Valley's balance sheets with it. Google doesn't need that kind of life raft. It just prints cash and builds.

This year, the narrative has shifted. Now it's AI that's going to disrupt SaaS. And once again, I think the market has it mostly wrong. Just like AI didn't kill Google Search but instead made it evolve, I believe AI will make existing SaaS companies evolve. As an industry, software is going to be fine. Individually, it gets murkier. There will be winners and losers from this shift, but the market right now is in shoot-first-think-later mode, punishing the entire sector indiscriminately.

That's what makes this week's reads so timely. Eugene Ng's framework for thinking about which software businesses survive the AI era, and Ser Jing's compilation of what Big Tech is actually saying and doing with AI on their latest earnings calls, both great insights into this noisy market.

Now, onto this week's three bullets.

Compound Steadily,
Thomas

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I. Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar

The article "Advice for the Kids" from HumbleDollar offers timeless financial lessons for younger generations.

It emphasizes saving early, living within your means, and investing consistently. The author also highlights the value of avoiding debt, cultivating good spending habits, and understanding that financial success is a marathon, not a sprint.

These principles serve as a guide for building long-term wealth and stability.

​>> Click here to read Advice for the Kids by The Humble Dollar​

II. Benedict Evans Presentation on AI

Every year, Benedict will produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.

For 2025, ‘AI eats the world’.

​>> Click here to read Benedict Evans Presentation on AI​

III. Oaktree's Howard Marks on China Opportunities, Trump's Cabinet, Market Sentiment

video preview​

Howard Marks interview with Bloomberg:

  • Be less aggressive, but don’t exit the market. Nobody can time the market. Instead, calibrate your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness.
  • You can be right about the events but wrong about how the markets react.
  • There are many speculations about the new administration, but the truth is, nobody knows how it will play out.
  • He doesn’t think things are crazy high now and doesn’t believe it is time to get out of the market.
  • China is trying to calibrate the right amount of stimulus. They’re wary of overshooting.
  • Howard Marks sees the Chinese market as a bargain right now.
  • The problem with the property surplus will take time to be absorbed. It doesn’t just disappear with new policies. He believes the government will do what it takes to digest these excess properties and implement policies to prevent this from happening again.
  • When people say China is uninvestable, it becomes music to their ears.

That's all I have for you today!

Till next week.

Thomas

Founder of Steady Compounding

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Steady Compounding

by Thomas Chua

I write about investment concepts, business breakdowns and timeless lessons from super investors. Featured on Business Times, Channel News Asia (CNA) and more. Read by over 10,000 investors.

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